Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
