A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
